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<h1 class="text-center orig-title"><!--<$[æ ‡é¢˜å称(html)]>begin-->2019年江西å®è§‚ç»æµŽæ™¯æ°”分æžåŠ2020年展æœ?!--<$[æ ‡é¢˜å称(html)]>end--></h1>
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<span>日期ï¼?019-10-30</span><span>æ¥æºï¼?!--<$[ä¿¡æ¯æ¥æº]>begin-->预测éƒ?!--<$[ä¿¡æ¯æ¥æº]>end--></span>
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<P>　<STRONG>　内容摘è¦ï¼?/STRONG>江西å®è§‚ç»æµŽç›‘测预è¦ä¿¡å·ç³»ç»Ÿæ˜¾ç¤ºï¼Œç›®å‰æˆ‘çœå®è§‚ç»æµŽä¸‹è¡ŒåŽ‹åŠ›è¾ƒå¤§ï¼Œå®è§‚ç»æµŽé¢„è¦æŒ‡æ•°å¤„于“过冷â€åŒºé—´ï¼›æ±Ÿè¥¿å®è§‚ç»æµŽæ™¯æ°”分æžç³»ç»Ÿæ˜¾ç¤ºå®è§‚先行ã€ä¸€è‡´æŒ‡æ•°åŒåŒæŒç»ä¸‹è¡Œï¼Œé¢„示2019年第四å£åº¦æˆ‘çœå®è§‚ç»æµŽä¸‹è¡ŒåŽ‹åŠ›ç»§ç»åŠ 大，2020年一å£åº¦å‰å‡ºçŽ°å›žå‡å弹的å¯èƒ½æ€§è¾ƒå°ã€‚建议æŒç»åœ¨æŠ•èµ„和消费领域å‘力：推进è½å®žä¿æŒåŸºç¡€è®¾æ–½é¢†åŸŸè¡¥çŸæ¿åŠ›åº¦æœ‰å…³ä¸¾æŽªã€åŠ å¤§åˆ¶é€ ä¸šæŠ€æ”¹æŠ•èµ„æ”¯æŒåŠ›åº¦ã€é˜²æ¢æˆ¿åœ°äº§å¼€å‘投资大起大è½ï¼›ç¨³å®šå°±ä¸šé¢„期ã€è¿›ä¸€æ¥æ¿€å‘县域消费潜力ã€ä¿ƒè¿›æœåŠ¡æ¶ˆè´¹å¥åº·å‘å±•ï¼ŒåŠ å¼ºæ”¿ç–针对性影å“ã€?/P></DIV>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: left; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=left>　　<SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">å·¥ä¸šç”Ÿäº§è€…å‡ºåŽ‚ä»·æ ¼æŒ‡æ•?/SPAN></P></TD></TR>
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<TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 193.65pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width=258>
<P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: left; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=left>　　<SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">一般公共预算收入指�/SPAN></P></TD>
<TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 35.4pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width=47>
<P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: left; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=left>　　<SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">7</SPAN></P></TD>
<TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; WIDTH: 171.2pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width=228>
<P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: left; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=left>　　<SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">固定资产投资指数</SPAN></P></TD></TR>
<TR style="HEIGHT: 1pt; mso-yfti-irow: 3">
<TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 37.15pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width=50>
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<TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; WIDTH: 171.2pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width=228>
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<P align=center>　　å›?江西月度ç»æµŽæŒ‡æ ‡æ™¯æ°”ä¿¡å·ç?/P>
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<P align=center>　　å›? 江西月度综åˆè¦æƒ…指数走势å›?/P>
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<P>　　江西å®è§‚ç»æµŽæ™¯æ°”指数系统基于ç»æµŽå‘¨æœŸç†è®ºï¼Œä»¥å·¥ä¸šå¢žåŠ å€¼ä¸ºåŸºå‡†æŒ‡æ ‡ï¼Œåˆ©ç”¨æ—¶é—´åºåˆ—方法识别ä¸åŒç»æµŽæŒ‡æ ‡ä¸ŽåŸºå‡†æŒ‡æ ‡çš„æ—¶å·®å…³ç³»ï¼Œå¹¶å°†æŒ‡æ ‡åˆ†æˆå…ˆè¡Œã€ä¸€è‡´å’Œæ»žåŽä¸‰ç±»ï¼Œè¿›è€Œåˆæˆæ™¯æ°”指数，构建景气系统。我们综åˆä½¿ç”¨æ—¶å·®ç›¸å…³åˆ†æžã€K-Lä¿¡æ¯é‡ã€åŸºäºŽDTWçš„èšç±»åˆ†æžç‰æ–°æ–¹æ³•å¯¹æ™¯æ°”æŒ‡æ•°ç³»ç»Ÿçš„ç›¸å…³æŒ‡æ ‡åº“è¿›è¡Œäº†æ”¹è¿›ï¼Œç›®å‰æŒ‡æ ‡æž„æˆæƒ…况è§è¡¨2ã€?/P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: center; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=center>　　<SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">人民å¸å„项贷款指æ•?/SPAN></P></TD>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: center; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=center>　　<SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">3</SPAN></P></TD>
<TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; WIDTH: 41.28%; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width="41%">
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<TR style="HEIGHT: 1pt; mso-yfti-irow: 4">
<TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 8.56%; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width="8%">
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<TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 41.52%; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width="41%">
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<TD style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 8.64%; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" width="8%">
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<P>　　å®è§‚先行指数对å®è§‚一致指数起到先导作用，åæ˜ ä¼ä¸šåŽ»åº“å˜ã€åŽŸæ料生产ã€æˆ¿åœ°äº§å¼€å‘销售ç‰ç»æµŽè¿è¡Œçš„先导方é¢å¯¹å®è§‚ç»æµŽæ•´ä½“的拉动作用。构æˆå®è§‚先行指数的4ä¸ªå…ˆè¡ŒæŒ‡æ ‡åœ¨ç»è¿‡å£èŠ‚调整ã€å–趋势项åŽï¼Œä¸€å¹´æ¥å‘ˆçŽ°å¦‚下å˜åŠ¨ï¼ˆè§è¡?）：商å“房销售é¢ç§¯æŒ‡æ•°ä»Ž2019å¹?月份开始å°å¹…上å‡ï¼›ä¾›ç»™ä¾§ç»“构性改é©æ˜¾æ•ˆï¼ŒåŽ»äº§èƒ½å‡åŽ‹äº†æˆ‘çœé’¢é“过剩产能，抑制了新增钢é“产能项目，钢æ产é‡æŒ‡æ•°å‘ˆå°å¹…上涨趋势，近五个月产é‡è¶‹ç¨³ï¼›äººæ°‘å¸å„项贷款余é¢æŒ‡æ•°å’Œå…¨å›½å®è§‚先行指数ä¿æŒå¹³ç¨³ä¸‹è¡Œã€?/P>
<P align=center>　　è¡? 江西å®è§‚先行指数</P>
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<P>　　å®è§‚一致指数åæ˜ å½“å‰å®è§‚ç»æµŽçš„景气状况。构æˆå®è§‚一致指数的5ä¸ªä¸€è‡´æŒ‡æ ‡åœ¨ç»è¿‡å£èŠ‚调整ã€å–趋势项åŽï¼Œä¸€å¹´æ¥å‘ˆçŽ°å¦‚下å˜åŠ¨ï¼ˆè§è¡?）：积æžè´¢æ”¿æ”¿ç–å‘力显效，一般公共预算收入指数在2019å¹?月结æŸè¿žç»?个月的回å‡å¼€å§‹å°å¹…走低；房地产开å‘投资增速ç»åŽ†äº†æ˜Žæ˜¾çš„政ç–性æŒç»å›žè½ï¼›å®è§‚需求指数æŒç»å°å¹…ä¸‹è¡Œï¼›å·¥ä¸šå¢žåŠ å€¼æŒ‡æ•°åœ¨2019å¹?月结æŸè¿žç»?个月å°å¹…上å‡åŽå¼€å§‹ä¸‹è¡Œï¼Œä½†å·¥ä¸šå¢žåŠ 值增速基本ä¿æŒå¹³ç¨³ï¼Œä½“现了当å‰å®è§‚ç»æµŽä»ç„¶å…·æœ‰å†…在稳定性；工业è¥ä¸šæ”¶å…¥ç»åŽ†7个月的å°å¹…回è½åŽå¼€å§‹é€æœˆå›žå‡ï¼Œä¿æŒå¹³ç¨³è¿è¡Œã€?/P>
<P align=center>　　è¡? 江西å®è§‚一致指æ•?/P>
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<P align=center>　　å›?江西å®è§‚ç»æµŽæ™¯æ°”指数系统分æžå›?/P>
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<P>　　3.优化民间投资环境。一是尽快出å°ã€Šè¥å•†çŽ¯å¢ƒæ¡ä¾‹ã€‹ï¼Œåœ¨æ³•å¾‹æ³•è§„层é¢ä¸Šè¿›ä¸€æ¥ä¼˜åŒ–投资环境。二是æ高环ä¿ã€ç¤¾ä¿ç‰æ”¿ç–稳定性，细化政ç–å•å…ƒï¼Œé¿å…政ç–执行频ç¹è°ƒæ•´å˜åŠ¨ï¼Œå¯¼è‡´ä¼ä¸šæ— 所适从，放大投资环境的ä¸ç¡®å®šæ€§ã€‚ä¸‰æ˜¯åŠ å¤§æ´ä¼åŠ©ä¼åŠ›åº¦ã€‚è½å®žå¤§è§„模å‡ç¨Žé™è´¹æ”¿ç–，推动缓解ä¼ä¸šèžèµ„éš¾èžèµ„贵问题，助力ä¼ä¸šæå‡åº”对困难局é¢çš„èƒ½åŠ›ã€‚å››æ˜¯åŠ å¿«å¤„ç½®â€œåƒµå°¸ä¼ä¸šâ€ï¼ŒæŽ¨è¿›ä½Žæ•ˆäº§èƒ½é€€å‡ºã€å…¼å¹¶é‡ç»„ï¼Œå‡€åŒ–å¸‚åœºç«žäº‰çŽ¯å¢ƒï¼ŒåŠ é€Ÿå¸‚åœºå‡ºæ¸…æ¥ä¼ã€?/P>
<P>　　<SPAN Roman?? New ?Times>从稳定就业预期ã€è¿›ä¸€æ¥æ¿€å‘县域消费潜力ã€ä¿ƒè¿›æœåŠ¡æ¶ˆè´¹å¥åº·å‘展ç‰æ–¹é¢å…¥æ‰‹ï¼Œæœ‰é’ˆå¯¹æ€§åœ°åŠ 强政ç–å½±å“ã€?/SPAN></P>
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<P>　　积æžåŠ 快产业å‡çº§ï¼Œå‡å°‘é™åˆ¶å’Œåž„æ–，促进å¯ä»¥æ»¡è¶³æ¶ˆè´¹å‡çº§éœ€è¦çš„高å“质商å“å’ŒæœåŠ¡ä¾›ç»™ï¼›åœ¨æ”¶å…¥å±‚é¢ï¼Œé™¤è½å®žå¥½å‡ç¨Žé™è´¹ä»¥å¤–ï¼ŒåŠ é€ŸæŽ¨è¿›å†œæ‘“三å—地â€æ”¹é©ï¼Œå¢žåŠ 农民财产性收入ã€è—富于民，以增收促消费。åŒæ—¶ï¼ŒåŠ 快推进县ã€é•‡ã€ä¹¡ã€æ‘å„级消费基础设施如电商物æµç½‘络的建设，扫清县域居民消费的物ç†éšœç¢ï¼Œå¯¹è¿›ä¸€æ¥æ¿€å‘消费潜力至关é‡è¦ã€?/P>
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